# AGENESIS: first-mover AI adoption

Source: https://dinand.com/research/campaigns/agenesis/
Author: Dinand Tinholt

> 100 runs across 4 industry verticals, 5 enterprises of 150 agents each per run: a first-mover premium of 210%, with the market tipping in 77% of markets.

## The question

What happens to an industry when one company adopts AI agents before its competitors do?

## What was measured

AGENESIS is an agent-based simulation of enterprise AI adoption: 100 runs across 4 industry verticals, with 5 enterprises per run and 150 agents in each.

## What it found

The first-mover premium was 210%, and the market tipped in 77% of markets. The lab's later campaign on sprawl cost extends the same simulator with an agent lifecycle.

## What it does not claim

- AGENESIS has no agent lifecycle: agents are created once and never retired, and its AI cost does not depend on how many agents a firm runs. The sprawl-cost campaign was built to fill that gap.

## Read the pieces

- [What Happens When One Company Adopts AI Before Its Competitors?](https://medium.com/@tinholt/what-happens-when-one-company-adopts-ai-before-its-competitors-cd976e5a8dba)Paper, Medium, 2026-04-04

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